Pub Rants

Category: statistics

This will probably be the shortest article ever because, in short, if it were possible to sit down and write a bestselling novel, wouldn’t every author do just that? According to Google, a writer simply needs to (1) have a big idea (simple—they grow on trees), (2) write with an audience in mind (always handy), (3) package the book to sell (definitely helps), and, my favorite, (4) use a female lead character, as there is a higher number of bestselling titles with female leads (okey-dokey). Interesting, Google. So can a writer set out to write a bestselling novel? That’s probably the wrong question. Here’s a better one. 

Since I’ve represented (at this point) 53 New York Times bestselling novels, you’d think I’d know a thing or two about them. But honestly, it’s a wonderful surprise every time a client of mine hits the NYT list. (The latest was Shelby Van Pelt’s debut Remarkably Bright Creatures in May.) When talking bestsellers, James Patterson is probably the best person to interview. He has cracked the code for sure, given the number of works he has on the NYT list at any given time. But my answer to this question is no, a writer can’t really set out to write a bestselling novel. Over the years, I have observed a few things about bestsellers.

Observation 1: None of my clients set out to write one. They all began with a story that felt personal to them and that they were passionate about writing. My NYT-bestselling clients also said they started with the voice of the story. It was unique, clear, and, once found, natural to write. 

Observation 2: Not unlike what Google helpfully suggested, all NYT titles start with an original concept, so although there are no new stories under the sun, these works felt fresh and original to the readers who discovered the novels and then raved about them to other readers. Some examples: 

  • A 50-year old man searches for the woman he loved during WWII before his love was sent away to an internment camp. (Hotel On the Corner of Bitter and Sweet)
  • A giant Pacific octopus helps unlock the mystery of what happened to the aquarium cleaning lady’s son thirty years ago. (Remarkably Bright Creatures)
  • A teen who attends a school for spies funnels her skills into spying on her first crush while also navigating the world of espionage. (I’d Tell You I Love You But Then I’d Have to Kill You)
  • A soulless woman nullifies the power of supernaturals such as vampires and werewolves with her touch and has to uncover why supernaturals are disappearing. (Soulless)
  • A Chinese American teen secretly living below a newspaper company moonlights as the anonymous but wildly popular society columnist Dear Miss Sweetie, whose articles shake up the town. (The Downstairs Girl)

Observation 3: Although publishers try to create bestsellers, for a debut novel to hit the list, there is an intersection of what readers are wanting to read and market timing. Plenty of titles can have the right ingredients, full in-house support, and marketing dollars, yet they still won’t land on the list. In the end, the reading public decides (as well as the algorithm used by the New York Times, but that is a whole other article).

For me, a better and more interesting question is this: What would a bestselling story look like for you personally as a writer? Where is your intersection of concept, passion, voice, and unique characters? Is it possible to analyze bestsellers to see what makes them tick? Jodie Archer and Matthew L. Jockers do just that in The Bestseller Code. As reviewers point out, this book won’t teach you how to write a bestseller, but it will reveal some interesting stats concerning bestsellers and what they all seem to have in common. Would that info give you a fresh perspective on your own story or take you one step closer to writing a bestseller? 

Only you the writer hold the answer to that question. 

Photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons.

For over a decade NLA has compiled our yearly stats. This year is no exception and there is one positive note in the number of manuscripts requested that also received offers of representation. This is good news for writers! Find out what else was positive for writers in 2021 (hint: across the pond). 

13,932 : Queries read and responded to. Up 371 queries from 2020 [which had a total of 13,561]. This looks like a close match…but it’s not. The agents of NLA, collectively, were closed to queries about 47% of 2021, as opposed to in 2020, when we were collectively closed to queries for only 27% of the year. So our average number of queries received per month actually increased 29% in 2021 over 2020.

353 : Number of full manuscripts requested and read (down from 430 in 2020): 95 requests for Kristin, 161 requests for Joanna, and although no longer with the agency, 97 requests for the other agents. 

111 : Number of manuscripts we requested that received offers of representation, either from us or from other agents/agencies (up from 106 in 2020). This is good news for writers in the query trenches. 

22 : Number of referred manuscripts KN read and considered during the times she was closed to general submissions but open to referrals only. The total for number of referrals read is 34 when including the other agents. 

3 : Number of new clients who signed with NLA (0 for Kristin—which is first in her career; 3 for Joanna)

37 : Books released in 2021 (down slightly from 41 in 2020).

2 : Number of career New York Times bestsellers for Joanna. Extra congrats to her client Kate Baer!

51 : Number of career New York Times bestsellers for Kristin (up from 48 in 2020). Marie Lu hit the list again this year, while Stacey Lee and Richard Chizmar made it for the first time.

5 : TV and major motion picture deals (almost on par with the 6 from previous year)

1 : TV show in production (Wool Saga coming on Apple+ in 2023) 

126 : Foreign-rights deals done (up from 70 in 2020). Wowza. This is great news for writers, as foreign markets are another great source of income. 

0 : Physical conferences attended. Thanks again, Covid. 

2 : Virtual conferences attended by Kristin (Story Brook Children’s Lit Fellows, Virtual Stoker Con). 

103 : Physical holiday cards sent (up one from 102 in 2020—we still only sent to clients during this Covid year).

736 : Electronic holiday cards sent (down from 837 in 2020 as a lot of editors left and we did a much needed cleanup of the list).

0 : Eggnog-chai lattes consumed during December because Starbucks didn’t offer. Huge sad face.

Lots : Of wonderful days reading and appreciating creators. 

Photo by Black ice from Pexels

For over a decade NLA has compiled our yearly stats. This year is no exception but with one big surprise in the data. And it’s all about queries and the possible impact of Covid.

4 : Number of agents at NLA (same as in 2019)

1 : Number of agents who made the Publishers Weekly Star Watch Finalists List. Congrats Quressa!

13,561 : Queries read and responded to. QueryManager gives us an exact number now. As a team, agents were closed to queries for 27% of the year, including for 8 months for Kristin, but we also think it’s because fewer writers queried in the time of Covid, so this is down from 14,000+ in 2019.

430 : Number of full manuscripts requested and read (up from 354 in 2019, as we had more time stuck at home to read): 71 requests for Kristin, 173 requests for Danielle, 77 requests for Quressa, 109 requests for Joanna.

106 : Number of manuscripts we requested that received offers of representation, either from us or from other agents/agencies (down from 127 in 2019, which might mean fewer folks have work out there on submission).

13 : Number of new clients who signed with NLA (1 for Kristin, 4 for Danielle, 4 for Quressa, 4 for Joanna). Four was the magic number for everyone except me, and this is down by only 1 from 2019, so go NLA team!

39 : Number of book deals done (16 for Kristin, 5 for Danielle with 1 debut, 11 for Quressa with 2 debuts, 7 for Joanna with 4 debuts). Way up from 26 in 2019.

2 : Number of debut New York Times bestsellers (1 for Quressa and 1 for Joanna, whose client debuted in the #1 position on the list!).

48 : Number of career New York Times bestsellers for Kristin (up from 45 in 2019).

8 : TV and major motion picture deals (6 for Kristin, 1 for Quressa, 1 for Joanna). Down from 11 in 2019.

41 : Books released in 2020 (down from 45 in 2019).

70 : Foreign-rights deals done (54 for Kristin, 7 for Danielle, 9 for Quressa). Down from 106 in 2019. Thanks, Covid.

0 : Physical Conferences attended. Thanks, Covid. 

2 : Virtual Conferences attended by Kristin (both Denver-based: Lighthouse Writers LitFest and the inaugural Margins Conference). 

102 : Physical holiday cards sent (down from 180 in 2019 as we only sent to clients during this Covid year).

837 : Electronic holiday cards sent (down by one from 838 in 2019).

Not telling it’s so embarrassing : homemade eggnog-chai lattes consumed during December because I wasn’t popping out to Starbucks.

Lots : Late nights reading on my living-room chaise and missing my dear, dear Chutney. Reading full manuscripts is just not the same without her.  

Creative Commons Photo Credit: Clint Budd

On October 15, Publishers Lunch sent out their daily email blast. In it, they rounded up the pre-sales happening before the virtual Frankfurt Book Fair and included this chart, which spotlights the surge in debut-fiction sales. To quote from the article: “As this chart makes clear, the 59 reports in the measured period are almost twice the average number of debut fiction sales from recent years.”

In a nutshell, the number of book deals for debut authors is up in a big way. Sounds pretty fantastic. Publishers are buying more debut authors during Covid than they did in 2019 or 2018. Any news that publishers are buying lots more fiction is good news, in my opinion.

But there’s also another story hidden in this data, one that’s not all rainbows and sunshine for already published authors. When publishers are buying more of one thing, they’re buying less of something else. In this case, that “something else” is most likely option-material projects from current authors who find themselves firmly on what we agents call the mid-list.

A mid-list author is an author who has a book (or several books) published and has decent sales, but none of their books have become a breakout—that is, we wouldn’t call sales for any one of their books phenomenal. A mid-list author can have a long and terrific career, publishing multiple books and maintaining solid sales track records. Historically, publishers have continued to buy new work from mid-list authors; sometimes, a mid-list author can publish four or five books, and it’s number six that breaks and catapults them into superstar standing in their publisher’s eyes. And then there are a lot of mid-list authors who publish three books, maybe five books, don’t break out, and the publisher decides not to pick up the option for the author’s next work. Suddenly, that author is contract-less.

That’s the hidden story in this chart from Publishers Lunch. Debut buys might be up because mid-list option buys are down. Anecdotally, this is what I’m hearing from quite a few other agents, as we do all like to chat with each other. What does this mean for agents in 2021? We’ll potentially be doing a lot of client career strategizing for the next six to twelve months as we position anew our mid-list authors. And we might be signing more debut authors as well. So check out our submission guidelines and keep us in mind for your next project!

Note: Only Publishers Marketplace subscribers can potentially access the full news story.

Creative Commons Photo Credit: winnifredxoxo

2019 End-of-Year Stats

4 : Number of agents at NLA (same as in 2018)

354 : Number of full manuscripts requested and read (down from 442 in 2018) (Largely due to my closing to queries for several months of 2019)

127 : Number of manuscripts we requested that received offers of representation, either from us or from other agents/agencies (up from 110 in 2018)

14 : Number of new clients who signed with NLA (1 for Kristin, 4 for Danielle, 5 for Joanna, 4 for Quressa) (same total number as in 2018!)

26 : Number of book deals done (12 for Kristin, 6 for Danielle, 4 for Quressa, 4 for Joanna) (up from 21 in 2018)

45 : Number of career New York Times bestsellers for Kristin (up from 44 in 2018)

11 : TV and major motion picture deals (8 for Kristin, 2 for Danielle, 1 for Joanna) (up from 9 in 2018)

1 : Major motion picture released (Netflix’s BIRD BOX by my client Josh Malerman—technically in the last week of 2018 but hey, spotlighting it here)

45 : Books released in 2019 (up from 35 in 2018)

14,000+ : Queries read and responded to (estimated) (Down from an estimated 20,000+ in 2018 largely due to my being closed to unsolicited queries and open to referrals only for several months of 2019, as well as to other agents closing intermittently)

106 : Foreign-rights deals done (up from 64 in 2018)

6 : Conferences attended by Kristin, including Bologna Children’s Book Fair, Book Expo/BookCon, World Horror, Lighthouse Writers, Kachemak Bay Writers, Colorado Writing Workshop (down from 7 in 2018)

180 : Physical holiday cards sent (up from 155 in 2018)

838 : Electronic holiday cards sent (up from 835 in 2018)

Not telling it’s so embarrassing : Eggnog chai lattes consumed during November and December

Lots : Late nights reading on my living-room chaise with the very senior and snuggly 16 and half year old Grand Dame Chutney

All : Great days loving my job!

Creative Commons photo credit: Lainey Powell

Welcome to 2019!

What am I most excited about? Our move to QueryManager! Many of you are probably already familiar with QueryManager, since lots of other agencies use it, too. Here at NLA, we’re especially excited about its ability to help us track our numbers: submissions received (and in which genres), responses sent, requests made, offers of representation, etc. QM will give us one-click access to all things query next year at this time when I’m compiling our 2019 stats!

Interested in submitting a query to us? Here’s a handy link to our brand-new submission guidelines. From there, you can learn more about what each of our agents is looking for this year as well as how to send your query. Please remember that we share queries, so choose only one agent to query. Good luck, if querying is part of your new year’s goals!

As a reminder, we do not represent screenplays, poetry, short-story collections, picture books, early-reader chapter books, or material for the Christian/inspirational market; we also don’t represent most nonfiction (only Quressa is open to reviewing NF submissions).

Now…the moment you’ve been waiting for: NLA’s 2018 end-of-year stats!

4 : Number of agents at NLA

442 : Number of full manuscripts requested and read

110 : Number of manuscripts we requested that received offers of representation, either from us or from other agents/agencies.

14 : Number of new clients who signed with NLA (2 for Kristin, 5 for Danielle, 5 for Joanna, 2 for Quressa)

21 : Number of book deals done (6 for Kristin, 5 for Danielle, 3 for Quressa, 7 for Joanna)

44 : Number of career New York Times bestsellers for Kristin (up from 41 last year). Her latest, Josh Malerman’s Bird Box, hit the list for the first time after the release of the film on Netflix.

1 : Movie released (Bird Box of course!)

9 : TV and major motion picture deals (8 for Kristin, 1 for Quressa)

35 :  Books released in 2018

20,000+ : Queries read and responded to (estimated)

64 : Foreign-rights deals done

7 : Conferences attended by Kristin, including ALA Midwinter, RWA, Lighthouse Writers, SCBWI Rocky Mountain, Dallas Fort-Worth Conference

155 :  Physical holiday cards sent

835 : Electronic holiday cards sent (up from 788 in 2017)

Not telling it’s so embarrassing : Eggnog chai lattes consumed during November and December

Lots : Late nights reading on my living-room chaise with the very senior and snuggly lady Chutney

All : Great days loving my job!

Creative commons photo credit: Jurgen Appell

When I was getting ready to publish the stats from 2018, I realized I had never posted those from 2017. Well, that won’t do. So here it is–only 365+ days late.

3: Number of fantastic new agents at NLA.

1: Number of NLA Twitter Pitch Parties (and with 3,500+ pitches tweeted our way, our hashtag trended in Twitter’s top 5 that day!).

3: Number of Twitter Pitch events NLA participated in.

667: Number of full manuscripts requested and read (up from 87 last year). Wowza! The power of four agents reading!

91: Number of manuscripts we requested that received offers of representation from other agencies.

22: Number of manuscripts NLA offered representation for: Danielle = 12; Johanna = 6; Quressa = 2 (she started with us in September); Kristin = 2.

19: Number of new clients who signed with NLA.

37: Number of books released in 2017: 24 print releases, 6 reprints, and 7 digital releases.

25,000+: Estimated number of queries read and responded to.

112: Foreign-rights deals done (up from 71 last year).

9: TV and major motion picture deals: Kristin = 8; Danielle = 1.

41: Total number of Kristin’s New York Times bestsellers (up from 39 in 2017).

54: Number of print runs for Kristin’s longest-selling title, which is Jamie Ford’s HOTEL ON THE CORNER OF BITTER AND SWEET, originally published in 2009. Up from 50 just last year. The Energizer Bunny of novels with millions sold!

Millions: Number of copies sold of Marie Lu’s three bestselling series—yay Marie!

Millions: Number of copies sold of Ally Carter’s bestselling, long-running Gallagher Girls series (which celebrated its 10th anniversary with new editions in 2016)—yay Ally!

Millions: Number of copies sold of Hugh Howey’s bestselling individual title, WOOL, which just keeps finding new readers—yay, Hugh!

8: Conferences attended by Kristin: Colorado Superstars, SCBWI Tulsa, Colorado Teen Day, Pikes Peak Writers Conference, Lighthouse Writers LitFest, RWA, Rocky Mountain Fiction Writers, and Tattered Cover Teen Bookcon.

166: Physical holiday cards sent.

788: Electronic holiday cards sent (up from 539 in 2015).

Not telling it’s so embarrassing: Number of eggnog chai lattes consumed during November and December. (I actually tracked them this year, and that just made me less likely to share the actual number.)

Lots: of late nights reading on my living-room chaise with Chutney. (That old grand dame just keeps getting more snuggly with every year.)

All: Great days loving my job!

Welcome to the new New Year!

Creative Commons photo credit: morebyless

Wowza, did last year fly by! I was just getting used to writing 2016 on documents, and now I have to switch to 2017. In any case, it’s time for our end-of-year stats:

2 new agents at NLA (Joanna MacKenzie and Danielle Burby come on board!)

39 career New York Times bestsellers (up from 37 in 2015. So close to being able to say “more than 40.”)

59 books released in 2016 (25 print releases, 9 reprints, and 21 digital releases)

new clients (lots of exciting news to share soon)

30,000+ queries read and responded to (estimated)

92 full manuscripts requested and read (up from 87 last year)

project currently on submission (just happened!)

86 foreign-rights deals done (down from 99 last year, mainly because I only took on one client in 2014): 17 in Asia, 3 in Brazil, 10 in Mexico/Latin America, and 56 in Europe

TV and major motion picture deals (one not announced and yet and the other, sadly, was cancelled half way through the negotiation, much to our dismay)

50 print runs for my longest-selling title, Jamie Ford’s HOTEL ON THE CORNER OF BITTER AND SWEET—which originally published in 2009. Up from 46 just last year. The Energizer Bunny of novels with millions sold!

conferences attended (which includes Y’ALL West, RWA, Frankfurt Book Fair, and Honolulu Writers Conference)

Millions of units sold of bestselling series, which had a 10th-anniversary edition in 2016—yay Gallagher Girls!

Millions of units sold of bestselling individual title. WOOL just keeps finding new readers.

Millions of units sold of two bestselling series—yay Marie Lu!

140 physical holiday cards sent

713 electronic holiday cards sent (up from 539 in 2015)

Not telling it’s so embarrassing eggnog chai lattes consumed during November and December (I actually tracked them this year, and that just made me less likely to share the actual number.)

Lots of late nights reading on my living-room chaise with Chutney (that old dame just keeps getting more snuggly with every year)

All great days loving my job!

Welcome to the new New Year!

Photo Credit: Richard Grandmorin

All aspiring writers want their magic number to be one.

The first novel a writer ever wrote is perfect from conception.

The first novel lands a literary agent.

The first novel is so awesome, it immediately sells at auction.

The first novel is published to great fanfare and much commercial success.

The dream-come-true of overnight success. Well, I’d like to tell you something about that. Overnight success is a fabrication created by media outlets because it makes for a good story.

Ninety-nine-percent of the time, overnight-success stories are fiction. Most of these stories don’t divulge that the author ghostwrote ten novels for other people, or wrote three of their own novels that are tucked away because the author was working on craft.

In real life, what is the magic number—the number of novels written before a writer gets picked up by an agent, sold, and published?

I’ll tell you right now, it’s not one. If you poll a large number of authors and ask them how many novels they wrote before their first one sold, and then if you average the numbers they give you, my sense is that you will land right around four.

One of the truths I highlight at writers conferences is that for more than half of my clients, I passed on the first project they sent me. It wasn’t until they sent me a later, more mature work that our agent-author love match bloomed.

Why do I tell you all this? If you’ve just completed your first novel, awesome. Celebrate this huge achievement. But it doesn’t mean much if it doesn’t sell, or if you independently publish it and it doesn’t get much traction.

Keep on writing. Your magic number might be two or six or ten. My guess is that if you are passionately writing with ten novels under your belt, success is just around the corner.

Photo Credit: Andy Maguire

At the beginning of 2015, I implemented new submissions guidelines. Instead of reading queries and then requesting sample pages, I now request that authors include the first ten pages of their manuscript along with their query letters.

What a difference! Instead of reading only 45 full manuscripts (like I did in 2014), I read 87 full manuscripts in 2015, plus 129 sample pages, and although many of these projects weren’t right for me, they did end up being right for another agent.

Now, having tried this new submissions process for a year, I can definitely identify some pros and cons.

PRO: I’m guessing writers probably love it. It gives them a chance to wow me with some opening pages, whereas before, if they didn’t perfectly nail the query letter, they might have been out of luck.

CON: Sometimes it takes me weeks longer to respond to queries than I would like. If I know I have to read some pages with it, I can’t just breeze in and get it done in 30 minutes. I need at least an hour to read the sample pages attached.

PRO: I’ve learned that some writers can nail the query letter, but their actual pages are not quite ready for an agent to read. And I can decipher this pretty quickly. This allows me to ask for full manuscripts of novels that are ready.

CON: It’s more pressure for the writer to really nail those opening pages.

PRO: The number of novels I read all the way to the end went up in 2015. It’s pretty rare for an agent to read an entire manuscript if they know early on that the project isn’t for them. I actually read many more novels to the conclusion before making a decision about offering representation.

CON: Man, I was a bit slow in getting back to some writers. I had several manuscripts for an embarrassingly long period of time.

INTERESTING TIDBIT: When I do ask for a full, I almost always make my decision on whether it’s right for me within the first 60 pages.